Tropical cyclone Oma – Official NCSC “Heads up”
Update #1 – 19th FEB 2019.
By Antonio of North Coast Storm Chasers
Event Probability: 60-65% Potential Landfall / Offshore coast: Saturday/Sunday this weekend.
– Rainfall totals exceeding 300mm in NE NSW and SE QLD.
– Wind gusts in excess of 140km/h In SE QLD waters / coast & 110km/h NE NSW coast.
– Most likely “picked” track for Oma is SW and into the Hervey Bay area.
– NCSC entering “Pre Event Mode”
Full details (MUST READ)
Good evening everyone and welcome to yet another update on Cyclone Oma and what she might do by this weekend. Finally after a week.. we are close to answers everyone wants so here is what i have so far im sorry this will be a LONG post but it needs to be.
Over the past week models have been chopping and changing and being inconsistent with data but finally 4 days out we have models EC continuously forecasting huge rainfalls and a cyclone impact around Tin Can Bay / Hervey Bay on Sunday morning. We also have ACCESS G + GFS and NAVGEM computer models playing with Oma’s future probabilities and very similar results throughout!
This is reflected in the first image below where you can see Oma as of Saturday night sitting offshore Fraser Island. EC continues Oma into the coast then brings all the rain and wind with it. In a LOW or cyclone areas to the SOUTH of a system experience the worst rainfall and wind. This means that this weather is possible all the way south into NE NSW but especially all of SE QLD. Wing gusts in excess of 140km/h are possible if this scenario unfolds. So far the probability for this outcome has almost doubled since two days ago.
Similar to EC in image 2 below we have model ACCESSG showing very similar positioning with Oma and the same day. What difference we do have however is that ACCESSG keeps pushing Oma NW along the QLD coast and eventually making it north all the way to Mackay or surrounds. If this scenario was to unfold then we would likely still see heavy rains and very strong to damaging winds all up the SE QLD coast as well as the NE NSW coast however the rainfall will be limited to further north.
below The 3rd image known as an Ensemble is all of the potential paths that Oma may take from now onwards until this weekend. We can see finally there does not seem to be a path leading to New Zealand and this means that now its business time. A cyclone could likely be heading for the SE QLD area by this weekend and most of those members have it happening around Bundaberg as you can see but we also have crossings possible as far south as Ballina and as far north as Rockhampton area. Also you can see there is some that want to push it inland and over the ranges, should this occur inland areas might also see a drenching.
Now finally in image 4 below we have our very own “Most Favored” scenario based on all of the models and the consistency as of late. You can see that for NE NSW and SE QLD areas including the Sunshine Coast and further north that we have falls in excess of 300mm likely for major areas. This map is based purely on my own thoughts based on latest data and recent trends.
The next two images are latest model predictions.. much higher.
These images, Numbers 5 & 6 ,are off the ECMWF models predictions for rainfall. Another reason i had made my own map was because as we can see with these two images attached showing NE NSW and SE QLD rainfall totals forecast by the time Oma comes onshore. We can see totals exceeding 500 – 800mm in the GREY shaded zones where some places go as high as 1100mm…
Now this is where I want to say not to stress because EC does like to overestimate rainfalls for events like this and as we get closer to the event those totals should start to go down a little. However its never that simple.. Very possibly we might actually see rainfall totals like this however the probability is much lower around 20 – 30% but the totals forecast in my Map are much more likely and… balanced. None the less we do need to keep an eye out as this forecast rainfall has been persistent for 3 days now and climbing..
So to summarize and give my final conclusion / call…
This is a big big call to make because i know how many people are wanting an answer.. will Oma be coming or not? Well my answer is that she has a decent chance now of coming to SE QLD areas / Sunshine Coast my own personal pick is that there is 60-65% chance of Oma coming to say hello and soak us all..
The next 2 – 3 days will be critical as we have whats called an upper level trough to the south of Oma, if this trough was to be strong enough it would “capture” Oma and drag it SE to NZ however models are starting to agree this will not happen which means SE QLD is the next likely target.
Updates will roll out at least daily now as NCSC enters “Pre Event Mode” and prepares for a imminent event. We are looking at possibly doing a LIVE update via video tomorrow and if people are wanting this let us know in the comments below otherwise another post will be made regardless.
Hold tight folks, prepared but not scared. Be alert and informed. Share this with anyone as it will help people know whats to come. Remember again this is not 100% locked in but we are the closest we have been so far with this event. NCSC may lock this event in by Thursday.
First published at North Coast Storm Watch’s Facebook page 19 February 2019.